Track 3: Planning, Foresight and Risk Analysis
Lili Yang, Qun Liu, Shuang-Hua Yang, Dapeng Yu
Recent flooding events happening in our city demonstrate frequency and severity of floods in the UK, highlighting the need to plan and prepare, and efficiently defend. Different from the numerous evacuation model and optimization algorithms, this paper aims to address flood evacuation planning with flood inundation as inputs. A dynamic flooding model and prediction to estimate the development of both surface water and flooding from rivers and watercourses has been fed into evacuation planning at various levels. A three-step approach is proposed. The first step is to identify assembly point designation. The second step is to find the candidate shortest path from each assembly point to all safe areas for all evacuees with consideration of possible inundation. The last step is to determine the optimal safe area for evacuees in the inundation area. The work presented in this paper has emphasized timing issue in evacuation planning. A case study is given to illustrate the use of the approach.
The Role of Information Quality and Efficacy Beliefs in Predicting Chinese People’s Information Seeking about Air Pollution Risk
Yiwei Li, Yu Guo, Naoya Ito
Information seeking is suggested as an important precursor of self-protective behavior. Therefore, ways of enhancing information seeking are expected to help individuals’ precautionary action under conditions of risk. Builds upon previous efforts, a social-cognitive model of risk information seeking is constructed, presenting a new approach to meet the aforementioned expectation. Data were collected from a sample of Mainland Chinese people (N=1032). Results of path analysis demonstrated satisfactory model fit. Explanations on how the cognitive process resulted in information seeking may create a better understanding of individual behavior. Findings provide practical implications for communicating risks and for helping the public to make better decisions.
Beyond Saving Lives: Assessing the Economic Benefits of Early Warning Apps for Companies in the Context of Hydrological Hazards
Simone Wurster, Michael Klafft, Marcel Kühn
Natural and man-made hazards are increasingly threatening modern societies. Therefore Turoff, Hiltz, Bañuls and Van Den Eede (2013) highlight the need for boosting efforts in planning for emergencies. Advanced early warning systems (EWS) provide opportunities to increase the resilience of societies. Warning via mobile phones is considered to be the best way of alerting but few public authorities already use this warning channel. EWS also help to protect property but their implementation requires significant investments. Cost-benefit estimations are needed for public authorities, insurance companies and the users, particularly private households and enterprises. This paper contributes a disaster-independent formula to disaster research with specific applications for hydrological hazards. Illustrated by a heavy rain scenario, it shows, in particular, the benefits of EWS for companies. A specific focus is put on lead time aspects.
Siska Fitrianie, Leon J. M. Rothkrantz
Innovations in mobile technology allow the use of Internet and smartphones for communicating disasters and coordinating evacuations. However, given the turbulent nature of disaster situations, the people and systems at crisis center are subjected to information overload, which can obstruct timely and accurate information sharing. A dynamic and automated evacuation plan that is able to predict future disaster outcome can be used to coordinate the affected people to safety in times of crisis. In this paper, we present a dynamic version of the shortest path algorithm of Dijkstra. The algorithm is able to compute the shortest path from the user’s location (sent by the smartphone) to the safety area by taking into account possible affected areas in future. We aim at employing the computed routes on our mobile communication system for navigating affected people during emergency and disaster evacuations. Two simulation studies have validated the performance of the developed algorithm.
Kevin D. Henry, Tim G. Frazier
Evacuation models can be used to determine evacuation capacity, by estimating the time required for evacuating populations to leave areas exposed to a hazard. Disaster management practices and evacuation modeling are generally carried out to prepare for ‘worst-case’ conditions. However, hazard severity is highly variable. Performing evacuation modeling for multiple hazard scenarios may provide flexibility and a comprehensive understanding of evacuation capacity. A case study was undertaken to analyze the merit of scenario-based evacuation modeling. Results demonstrate a difference in clearance time between maximum and historic tsunami scenario modeling. During a smaller-scale event, allowing the maximum scenario population to evacuate can add congestion and inhibit evacuation of at-risk populations. Managing evacuation can improve evacuation efficiency by preventing unneeded congestion. Results show that traditional worst-case-scenario modeling may lead to overestimation of time needed to evacuate. Planning under such a scenario may increase risk to smaller-scale hazards.
Xiao LongDeng, Hui Zhang, Ya Qi Tang, Le Yi Ren
The 2014 West African EbolaOutbreak raisedfrom Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia at December in 2013 has been reported to cause 21296 cases and 8429 deaths until now which became the deadliest recorded in history. In this paper, we proposed the riskanalysis to assess the international spread risk from mentioned three African countries to China by GEM(Global Epidemic Mobility) Model. As another part of analysis, we crawled related online social media data of Ebola from the most four favorite online social networks (including SINA, TENCENT) in China from June to November in 2014.By analyzing these attained social media data and airline data of GEM, we found some interesting results. For example, Beijing has the most importing risk of Ebola while it has the hottest discussion on social network.. Furthermore, we showed analysis of combining social network data with geographicaldemonstration and Chinese citizen sentiment towards this disaster.
Maria Mikela Chatzimichailidou, Stefanos Katsavounis, Ioannis Dokas
In order to be proactive to accidents, there is a need to limit systems’ threats and vulnerabilities by being able to perceive and comprehend them as early as possible. Under this notion, the concept of ‘risk Situation Awareness provision capability’ is introduced, indicating that the elements of a system, tangible or not, have an impact on the enhancement or degradation of the awareness, in reference to its threats and vulnerabilities. As a means of measuring this capability, a methodology, based on existing yet not combined methods, i.e. STPA hazard analysis, EWaSAP early warning sign identification approach, and dissimilarity measures, is offered. This paper looks at analogous SA measurement techniques and finally discusses some limitations and future research directions.
Dimitrios Kavallieros, George Leventakis, Stefanos Malliaros, Ioannis Daniilidis, Vasileios Grizis
Public safety organizations include emergency and law enforcement agencies, fire departments, rescue squads, and Emergency Medical Services (EMS). In response to increasing threats of terrorism and natural disasters, safety and security personnel must overcome technology barriers to enhance their efficiency, especially in the neuralgic section of information exchange. Limited availability of information hinders the response time and decision making process. Efficient communications supported by interoperable technology are vital to the situational awareness, scalability, and effectiveness of incident response. This paper’s prime objective is the review of available information systems than can be used to support and assist security agencies.
The generation of resilient learning communities has become a priority for the national government of Costa Rica, recognizing the importance of incorporating a cross-cutting component of risk management in the education sector of the country. However, this process must be accompanied by appropriate access to information to enable decision-making in the field of planning. This prototype seeks to establish itself as an alternative solution to reduce gaps in information in the context of risk reduction in schools.
Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal, Maria Polese, Giulio Zuccaro, Miguel Almeida, Christoph Aubrecht
Natural or man-made disasters can trigger other negative events leading to tremendous increase of fatalities and damages. In case of Low Probability - High consequences events, decision makers are faced with very difficult choices and the availability of a tool to support emergency decisions would be very much beneficial. Within EU CRISMA project a concept model and tool for evaluating cascading effects into scenario-based analyses was implemented.This paper describes the main concepts of the model and demonstrates its application with reference to two earthquake-triggered CE scenarios, including (the first) the falling of an electric cable, ignition and spreading of forest fire and (the second) the happening of a second earthquake in a sequence. Time dependent seismic vulnerability of buildings and population exposure are also considered for updating impact estimation during an earthquake crisis.
Hendrik Stange, Sylvia Steenhoek, Sebastian Bothe, François Schnitzler
National information and situation centers are faced with rising information needs and the question of how to prepare for unexpected situations. One promising development is the access to vastly growing data produced by distributed sensors and a socially networked society. Current emergency information systems are limited in the amount of complex data they can process and interpret in real-time and provide only partially integrated prediction and alarming capabilities. In this paper we present a novel approach to build a new type of automated and scalable information systems that intelligently make use of massive streams of structured and unstructured data and incorporate human feedback for automated incident detection and learning. Big data technologies, uncertainty handling and privacy-by-design are employed to match end-user system requirements. We share first experiences analyzing data from the centennial flood in Germany 2013.
Avgoustinos Filippoupolitis, Lachlan MacKinnon and Liz Bacon
Population preparedness plays a crucial role in disaster management since it can help reduce the number of victims and restrict damage. Nevertheless, little work has been done at a European level towards preparing populations to learn how to cope with disasters and involving them in the disaster management process. In this paper we present the preliminary results of an on-line emergency preparedness survey circulated among EU citizens, which aims to identify and analyse people’s behaviour in terms of preparedness, first reaction, risk awareness and willingness to engage in preparedness actions. Our preliminary analysis, based on over 1200 participants, indicates that although EU populations have a high capability for participation in emergency response, their preparedness level is low. We also found that national differences are a significant factor affecting individual preparedness behaviour and awareness of risks.
Ana-Gabriela Núñez, Mª Carmen Penadés, José H. Canós, Marcos R. S. Borges
The evaluation of the quality of emergency plans is an unresolved issue. While most research efforts have focused on the definition and improvement of planning methods and the associated tools, a reference framework allowing the assessment of emergency plans is still missing. In this paper, we report our initial work towards the definition of a quality framework for emergency plan management. To create it, we are borrowing results from more than one century of research on quality methods, with special emphasis in the newest Total Quality Management approaches that pay attention to technical, human and strategic concerns during the plan development process. The QuEP framework defines a number of planning principles and practices to define a maturity-driven layered model for the evaluation of organizations. We list the principles and practices, and describe its potential to be integrated with other emergency plan management frameworks.
Lars Gerhold, Nels Haake
This paper presents results from a two-round Expert-Delphi (N1=227, N2=126), realized in 2014, which focuses on the following research question: What are the most relevant developments affecting public security in Germany until 2030?
Theoretically the survey is based on a conceptual framework that includes assumptions on calculating the probable occurrence of risks, the relevance of megatrends and the implications of both on public security. Preliminary results show the relevance of the increasing dependency on Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), increasing exposure of critical infrastructures, the global mobility of men and goods and the widening gap between rich and poor as relevant for public security in Germany. Furthermore the potential impact of risks like ICT-crime, extreme weather events and pandemics are rated high, while their expected probability of occurrence differs from medium to high.
Towards assessing the quality of volunteered geographic information from OpenStreetMap for identifying critical infrastructures
Benjamin Herfort, Melanie Eckle, João Porto de Albuquerque, Alexander Zipf
Identifying the assets of a community that are part of its Critical Infrastructure (CI) is a crucial task in emergency planning. However, this task can prove very challenging due to the costs involved in defining the methodology and gathering the necessary data. Volunteered Geographic Information from collaborative maps such as OpenStreetMap (OSM) may be able to make a contribution in this context, since it contains valuable local knowledge. However, research is still due to assess the quality of OSM for the particular purpose of identifying critical assets. To fill this gap, this paper proposes a catalogue of critical asset types, based on the analysis of different reference frameworks. We thus analyze how good the emergent OSM data model is for representing these asset types, by verifying whether they can be mapped to tags used by the OSM community. Results show that critical asset types of all selected sectors and branches are well represented in OSM.
Kim Hagen, Meropi Tzanetakis, Hayley Watson
The analysis of cascading effects in crisis situations can enhance crisis managers’ understanding of how crises unfold and what prominent triggers of cascading effects are. By identifying and categorising triggers of cascading effects, a greater understanding of critical points in crisis situations can be reached, which can contribute to strengthening practices of crisis management, including preparedness and response. Accordingly, this paper provides an insight into triggers of cascading effects, gained through the analysis of six case studies of crises that took place between 1999 and 2014. The analysis produced six categories of triggers, which are discussed here: the disruption of pre-existing relations of information, organisation, and supply, disturbance relations, pre-disaster conditions, and the malfunctioning of legal and regulatory relations. Authors argue that the categorisation of triggers aids anticipating cascading effects, along with predicting risks and planning for potential bottlenecks in crisis management.
Forecasting Daily Pedestrian Flows in the Tiananmen Square Based on Historical Data and Weather Conditions
Lida Huang, Tao Chen, Yan Wang, Hongyong Yuan
It is important to forecast the pedestrian flows for organizing crowd activities and making risk assessments. In this article, the daily pedestrian flows in the Tiananmen Square are forecasted based on historical data, the distribution of holidays and weather conditions including rain, wind, temperature, relative humidity, and AQI (Air Quality Index). Three different methods have been discussed and the Support Vector Regression based on the Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization (APSO-SVR) has been proved the most reliable and accurate model to forecast the daily pedestrian flows. The results of this paper can help to conduct security pre-warning system and enhance emergency preparedness and management for crowd activities.
Eelco Vriezekolk, Sandro Etalle, Roel Wieringa
Telecommunication services are essential to modern information systems, especially so for crisis management. Telecoms systems are complex and difficult to analyse. Current risk assessment methods are either not used because of their complexity, or lack rigorous argumentation to justify their results because they are oversimplified. Our challenge has been to develop a risk assessment method that is both usable in practice and delivers understandable arguments to explain and justify its risk evaluations. After experiments to validate the method in laboratory environments, we now present the first results from successful application with practitioners in a regional crisis organization that provides evidence about the practical usability of the method.
Exposure Assessment of Rainstorm Disaster Based on Land Use and Precipitation Extreme: A Case Study of Beijing, China
Yao Simin, Zhong Shaobo
The risk of rainstorm disaster is expected to increase with rising disaster losses as a consequence. Besides the uncertainty of frequency and severity of rainfalls, it can also be attributed to the expansion of settlement and industrial areas and the resulting accumulation of population and assets. Therefore, it’s important to both analyze historical precipitation and estimate land use condition. In this study, the data of land use status and historical heavy rainfalls of 16 districts in Beijing are collected to obtain the exposure level zoning map and carry out a comprehensive analysis. This is followed by Spearman’s rank correlation analysis and the correlations between the exposure and disaster losses have been discussed. This study presents a new perspective of exposure assessment, and some useful ideas about city planning and management are proposed in view of the inevitable trend of rapid urbanization in China.
Oscar Durán, Catalina Esquivel, Edward Ruiz
In Costa Rica, there is an acceptable work in the area of risk management and an advanced system of emergency response. However, it is recognized and accepted the lack of a comprehensive shared approach to manage disaster risk that involves the prevention of disasters in the National System for Disaster Risk Management (SNGR in Spanish). One of the main needs is the lack of a shared and accessible national platform of timely and updated information for risk management. Considering this weakness, we submitted a proposal to the authorities of the University of Costa Rica (UCR) and the Consejo Superior Universitario Centroamericano (CSUCA) that was sponsored by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC). The project seek to develop an information platform which uses a Content Management System with meta data, semantic , taxonomic and georeferenced information for local, regional and national levels in Costa Rica. The system also serves as a network for data producers, analysts, users of public and private institutions, and of the population in general.
Gilbert J. Huber, Roberto F. Júnior, Paulo V. R. Carvalho, José O. Gomes
Rio de Janeiro’s Integrated Command and Control Center (CICC-RJ ) has already seen duty in several large scale events which happened in town, some planned, others not. CICC-RJ is part of Rio de Janeiro state’s response to the Brazilian national government’s mandate to improve the state’s ability to anticipate and respond coherently to public safety events in the region. Its infrastructure is intended to enable and promote local agencies’ ability to anticipate, plan, monitor, and respond to public safety events by sharing operational intelligence and acting in concert. The aim of this paper is to explore some of the CICC-RJ issues where fragility and resilience were at play during the operational management of the 2014 World Cup in Rio de Janeiro, as the CICC-RJ seeks to enhance its capabilities to promote resilience in preparation for the 2016 Olympics in Brazil.
Diana C. Arce Cuesta, Gilbert J. Huber, Jose Orlando Gomes, Paulo V. R. Carvalho
Emergency organizations have contingency plans, which define responsibilities, resources, and actions to be performed in an emergency situation. However, unexpected incidents may arise and cause additional difficulty in the emergency control process. The knowledge that team members develop to deal with these incidents and keep the system 'functioning' improves resilience and response and is very valuable for such organizations. This research addresses the problem of how to capture the incidents and knowledge generated during the emergency response through a conceptual framework. The framework defines a structured process for preparation and capture of incidents during an emergency through direct observations, to assist in the capture and proper representation of the incidents to produce knowledge within other practitioners.
Thomas Münzberg, Marcus Wiens, Frank Schultmann
Coping capacities (CCs) are often implemented at Critical Infrastructure (CI) facilities to ensure a continuous supply of vital services and products for a population during lifeline disruptions. Through various restrictions, these redundant backups are frequently limited and, hence, only allow a supply continuity for a short duration. The capacity depletes with the duration of the disruptions. In this paper, we discuss how this decrease is evaluated in disaster management. To get an enhanced insight, we introduce to a representative decision problem and used a demonstrative example of a power outage to discuss how decision maker consider the effect of CC depletion and how analytical approaches could address this issue. For doing so an expert survey and an analytical approach were implemented and applied. The comparison and the discussion of the results motivate further research directions on this topic.
Determination of the effectiveness of security measures for low probability but high consequence events: A comparison of multi-agent-simulation & process modelling by experts
Florian Brauner, Julia Maertens, Holger Bracker, Ompe Aimé Mudimu, Alex Lechleuthner
Due to the increasing danger of terrorist attacks, it is necessary to determine the preventive effects of security measures installed in e.g. public transportation systems. Since, there is no common practice to determine the preventive effects; we developed two different methodologies to analyse those effects, both are suitable for the assessment of security measures. The first method is a semi-quantitative method based on expert-estimations combined with a modelled process of an attack.The second method models the scenarios using a multi-agent-based simulation framework. Simulating a large number of runs, it is possible to derive values for indicators of interest on statistical basis. We show the suitability of both methods by applying them on a practical example of a public transportation system. In this paper we introduce both methodologies, show an exemplary application and present the strengths and weaknesses and how they can be linked to get an increased benefit.