A Scenario-based approach for analyzing complex cascading effects in Operational Risk Management

Miguel Ramírez de la Huerga, Victor A. Bañuls, Murray Turoff

Abstract

This is the first paper to apply Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) and Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) methods for analyzing complex cascading effects in Operational Risk Management in an industrial environment. Its main objective is to improve the understanding of the overall picture of an organization’s risks. The paper summarizes the development of a CIA-ISM method of the interaction of 18 critical events of an industrial plant as a first step to improving organizational resilience based on the company’s own estimations as well as the estimates of a panel. The main benefit of using these methods is to know the relationships between different risks and consequences, direct links, indirect and cascading effects. Having the  possibility of knowing a full risk map and being able to make a forecast will help to mitigate the unexpected effects and have a better response after an emergency situations is the same as being more resilient.

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