Modeling Day- and Nighttime Population Exposure at High Resolution: Application to Volcanic Risk Assessment in Campi Flegrei

Sérgio Freire, Aneta Florczyk, Stefano Ferri


Improving analyses of population exposure to potential natural hazards, especially sudden ones, requires more detailed geodemographic data. Availability of such information for large areas is limited by specific database requirements and their cost.

This paper introduces and tests a new approach for refining spatio-temporal population distribution at high resolution by combining diverse geoinformation layers. Its value is demonstrated in the context of disaster risk analysis and emergency management by using the data in a real volcanic risk scenario in Campi Flegrei, located within the metropolitan area of Naples, Italy. Results show that there is significant variation in exposure from nighttime to daytime in the study area.

The proposed modeling approach can be applied and customized for other metropolitan areas, ultimately benefiting disaster risk assessment and mitigation.

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