Improving emergency preparedness with simulation of cascading events scenarios

Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal, Maria Polese, Giulio Zuccaro, Miguel Almeida, Christoph Aubrecht

ABSTRACT

Natural or man-made disasters can trigger other negative events leading to tremendous increase of fatalities and damages. In case of Low Probability – High consequences events, decision makers are faced with very difficult choices and the availability of a tool to support emergency decisions would be very much beneficial. Within EU CRISMA project a concept model and tool for evaluating cascading effects into scenario-based analyses was implemented.This paper describes the main concepts of the model and demonstrates its application with reference to two earthquake-triggered CE scenarios, including (the first) the falling of an electric cable, ignition and spreading of forest fire and (the second) the happening of a second earthquake in a sequence. Time dependent seismic vulnerability of buildings and population exposure are also considered for updating impact estimation during an earthquake crisis.

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