Expression and Deduction of emergency scenario based on scenario element model

Chao Sun, Fushen Zhang, Shaobo Zhong, Quanyi Huang

Abstract

In the context of an era filled with frequent occurrence of emergencies, it is urgent to carry out effective treatment. The existing studies focus their research on general rule of emergency evolution, ignoring the consideration of concrete composition of scenario, whilethe formulation of contingency plan based on the real evolution process of the emergency is rare. In this paper, the basic model of scenario elements is proposed firstly. Next, from the perspective of evolution and disposal of emergency, the framework of scenario for emergencies and emergency disposal is put forward, which paves the way for depiction and scenario analysis of emergency. Finally, this paper takes the stampede as an example, dividing the scenario of emergency and its components, namely scenario elements, and representing the evolution scenario of stampede by scenario elements model. Our method takes advantage of scenario elements model to provide support for the formulation and evaluation of emergency exercise.

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